Cs Section

Cavaliers-Celtics:

Finally, we're down to some actual teams in the East instead of... well, you know, the East. And we get what promised to be, before Garnett went down in SLC last year, the real finals for the years of 2009-2012: C vs C, Le-Bron vs. Three, a new rivalry to challlenge those of old, Rock and Roll Hall of Fame against Harvard. That's all ruined, but we still have what promises to be, short of the Eastern Conference Finals and actual Finals, one of this playoff season's best matchups.

Of course Boston is not what it used to be. Garnett went down and is no longer the monster that even McHale couldn't destroy. Pierce may or may not still be the not false. And Rasheed Wallace has taken the place of House, Powe, and Cassell. And Cleveland is not what it once was either. Since losing in 7 games to the Cs during their ascendent 2007-08 season, Cleveland has acquired 2 trophys for its King (and yours), 2 best records of the year, 1 ill-advised COY award, and the contracts of an aging, but still good center (some irish guy) as well as Antawn Jamison.

All these factors plus a LeBron that everyone says really wants it have conventional wisdom placing this series at 5 games. I think that that's a little to hard on the Celtics. First of all, although not capable of what they once were they can play defense better than most, a trait that tends to frustrate the Cavs, forcing them to rely too heavily on LeBron (as was seen in last year's Eastern Conference Finals). The Celtics are probably slightly underrated, too. People saw the Heat putting up much more of a fight, but the Celtics, like the Lakers in the West, still seem able to play hard and win in the playoffs, quickly quieting naysayers. The Celtics are tough, and the Cavaliers can be effected a little by toughness. Garnett knows how to talk shit and did so to great effect last time these two teams met (causing the Real LBJ to miss a three to win). Both teams do not like their opponents, but while the Cavs seem to shrug off this kind of hatred (or at worst, get rattled by it) the Celtics thrive on it. The type of gritty, grinding series these factors predict would seem to favor the Celtics over the Cavaliers. Of course, sloppy, solipsistic, sports psychology is a much worse determiner than points diferential, record, home-court, and having won the first game, so I still expect the Cs (Cavs) to win, but I expect them to get bruised, frustrated, and occasionally humiliated along the way.

Interesting Stories:

Last time these teams played in the playoffs the final game was a shootout between LeBron and Paul Pierce. While the King scored more points, the Truth's team won, and the man went on to be Finals MVP. I think that he will likely be a big factor in this series. So far he's been pretty quiet in the playoffs. If he can deliver in a few of these games, he might be able to dismantle the calm, cool, Cavs and force them to revert to their previous form, the LeBrons.

Not-Interesting Stories:

LeBron's elbow.

Prediction:

Cavaliers in 7 (Game 1, Game 3, Game 5, Game 7)

C Murder

Celtics-Heat
I was waiting to write this, the last of the first round playoff prediction posts (frppp), until after I saw the much hyped reason Garnett got suspended for game two (video here). I'm glad I waited because it gives me more insight into this series, the only one between two eastern teams that I really feel like I know. The first of those links above discusses how Garnett is one of the worst figures in sports, he must have missed this guy. The article in question also defends Richardson for calling Pierce and Garnett "Actresses." OK. Anyway, back to the matter at hand, that video clip reveals the two teams, all bullshit brushed aside (which is to say all relevant basketball information which makes up 99.9% of who wins a game brushed aside). The Celtics are a rough and tumble lot, sure. They're compass, a slightly ridiculous and overenthusiastic Garnett, can be a bit of a joke sometimes, fine. But they care about one another. Once Garnett got to Boston back in '07, he engendered a sense in all of them that they are a team and that they will play and win together. He started a tradition in which, when a teammate falls, you run (sprint) to help him back up, patting him on the back and getting him back in the game. Watch a guy fall in Boston and you'll see that attitude. It is this attitude that allows the Celtics to be so effectively open to any player on offense and that sets the team up as a defensive monster. It is this spirit of camaraderie that won this team a championship, that Doc Rivers harnesses so effectively as a coach, and (full disclosure) the spirit that makes the Celtics my second favorite team. So, when you punch a guy in the stomach because you can't control your emotions when losing a game, its this kind of spirit that gets you elbowed in the head. Now this elbowing wasn't even nearly as extreme as I pictured it in my head, after all, while eccentric, Garnett is not insane nor is he Dennis Rodman but he is a good teammate. And he will stand by his man.

Contrast that with the Heat. A team that has a lot of promise but way more emotionally unstable loose cannons than any other team, even Denver. And next season, when Dwayne Wade (one can only pray) goes to New York to be paid by Jay-Z, this team will just be an ungodly, unstable mess. Beasley is talented but way too ready to punch people or burst into tears to be effective. Richardson is, well let's just say, a ho. And let me just be clear, there's good unstable and there's bad unstable. Good unstable is Artest, Garnett, Payton, and even Rodman (at times). They'll talk shit, act crazy, and get in your head, but they'll mostly just play basketball and play it well. They won't generally melt down and throw the whole game at the slightest provocation (though we all know those guys I just listed have melted down, but c'mon, blog with me). Then there's bad unstable, which characterizes many players on the Nuggets and Heat rosters. These guys cannot be depended on to finish when the pressure really mounts. They buckle and throw the series. I think it's a sort of team attitude and not just a trait of any given player. The Nuggets had it in droves back in the AI days, when they were all swagger, high scoring, and completely useless against the Lakers, Spurs, or any serious team. And despite Billups' effort to lead the team out of the wilderness, they can still fold like pants (thanks metaphors.com) when tough times come home to roost (thanks mixedmetaphors.com) -- see Mart, K during the final game of last years Nuggets-Lakers series. The Heat is rife with players that exude this ethos and without someone of Wade's caliber to calm them down/perform on the court (and in commercials), they will not see the playoffs again for a long time. I'll stick with my original prediction here (my first one was already disproved in Chicago) and say Cs win in 7, as they have trouble on the road in first round series. But I hope that they do win and that, when they do, they take the advice given in this post's title.

Interesting Stories:
See Above

Prediction:
Celtics in 7 (Game 1, Game 2, Game 5, Game 7)

Milwaukee Yucks

Hawks-Bucks:
Continuing in my grand tradition of making predictions after potentially half of the relevant facts are already on the table (I have a good feeling Joe Biden could be the next VP, guys), allow me to turn my attention towards the Milwaukee Bucks and the Atlanta Hawks. Now I originally called this series in six games, but that was before I realized that Chris Paul and Deron Williams draft-outshining center (and dude resembling my highschool physics teacher) Andrew Bogut went down at the end of the season. Now, thanks to ESPN and perennial versin blogger Bethlehem Shoals, I realize the Bucks don't stand a chance, which is a shame. I liked this Milwaukee team a lot, with its Salomonss, its late season surge, its fear the deer enthusiastic home fan base, and its indy rookie Brandon Jennings. They are now no match to face the lean, athletic, and (in this series at least) constantly dunking Hawks, who also had an amazing season and now have a pretty good shot at sweeping. That's a shame because this could have been the years best series, it will at least, mark the playoff debut of what will soon be one of the East's strongly competitive teams.

Interesting Stories:
Watch Jennings: he nearly tied the playoff record for best debut (in points) in this series' first game and followed it up with 9 points (a solid 73% decrease) in the second. Although there's nothing the Bucks can really do without solid rebounding, boddying, and blocking support in the center, these games will live or die (in terms of excitement) with Jennings' effort. So far this series has mirrored Jennings' performance during the regular season, which saw Jennings alternatively making commentators lose their stuff and scratch their heads. He's a fascinating kid (undoubtedly the number three pick for rookie of the year in an insane group of rookie point guards) and it will be interesting to see if he develops along Vince Carter lines, or is able to rise above the midwestern squalor that surrounds him. Stay tuned to find out.

Prediction:
Atlanta in 5: (Game 1, Game 2, Game 4, and Game 5)

Magic Hero

Magic-Bobcats:
I don't really know much about the Bobcats and was toying with the idea of doing the post as consumate outsider Jackie Harvey (Item: apparently Chicago Bears bigman Maurcel Jordan has got himself his very own South Carolina team -- that joke isn't that much funnier in The Onion). I decided to scrap this idea, however, in favor of the short but sweet post. It seems to me that Charlotte has a good team that's not really ready. They have some amazingly athletic players in Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace (one of the only plays I saw the Bobcats perform had Wallace shooting almost straight up to grab a steal, and sprint for a dunk; it doesn't sound so good written here, but trust me it was impressive, he shot up like he had a jet-pack), one of the NBAs top coaches, and a new majority owner in Michael Jordan. They're undoubtedly green, but hungry, and could potentially make the series closer than many (including me) suspect (espn has an article here on how game 1 could have ended differently). But I can't really see them topping the Magic who had the league's best record after the arbitrary all-star break. The Magic's ridiculous and patented "hundreds of three-shooters plus Dwight Howard in the post" style will probably carry them deepish in the playoffs.

Interesting Stories:
Besides the Pietrus v. Wallace and Carter v. Jackson matchups that should be entertaining, the thing to watch in this series is the coaching. Both coaches have reputations as very good in-game coaches adroit at finding match-up advantages for their players and pressing them. Watching Van-Gundy go head to head with Larry Brown in a shifting, chess-like variety of rotations might be the most exciting thing this series has to offer (though there will most definitely be some awesome highlights).

Prediction:
Magic in 5
(Game 1, Game 2, Game 4, Game 5)

Bullish on the Cavs

Cavaliers-Bulls:
In predicting this series I have the advantage of having been camping this weekend, which (as camping is wont to do) limited my access to Cable TV and the internet. I was therefore unable to post on this series before it started. This was compounded by the fact that, by the time I got around to writing this, the second game of the series ended. Therefore, I definitively know that the Cavs are up 2 games to none and can use this information to predict what will happen next. But, though I'm no frequentist, I didn't need this wealth of information and can throw it away in making my prediction. I need only to study LeBron's face to know the Cavs will win in 4.

This particular Cleveland team is stronger than the one we saw last year. The addition of Shaquille O'Neal and Antawn Jamison make a team many had favored to win it all last year, even more favored. Add to this a rested LeBron, the stinging hunger of a team that lost when they were expected to win (ask the Lakers, if you can rouse them from their current nap), and an expiring contract that may mean this is everybody's (well, everybody except LeBron's) last chance and you get a team that is so motivated to win that they will be tempted to strangle the CityCorps kids who hold the American Flag just to get the game started. These Cavs are not happy. And their lack of happiness makes me think they will eat everyone in their path from Orlando and LA to, should the fools make the mistake of taking them on, the national guard.

In the other corner you have a team that doesn't really belong in the playoffs. Sure, they gave us last year's greatest series. But without John Salmons and Ben Gordon and their 33 ppg its a miracle these kids made the playoffs at all. A "miracle" that was only made possible by a season ending injury to Chris Bosh (we wish Bosh the best and hope his features aren't too altered by his stitches for reasons that will eventually become apparent). Sure Rose and Noah are talented. But they're only slightly more talented than the top two players on any NBA team -- every team does, after all, have a couple of insanely good players. Slightly better than the minimal standard, mixed with Del Negro's sub-par coaching, is not enough to go head to head against the league's best. Expect The Cavs to crush like that machine that crushes cars. And expect to see the Real LBJ move on and up, trying in vain to satisfy his unquenchable thirst for opponents' heads. Expect to check back in with Chicago in July when they woo Bosh and Boozer.

Interesting Stories:
This is likely to be one of the least interesting series this year; nevertheless, it will likely have its moments. If the Cavs are able to actually win a championship I expect a non-trivial amount of ink will be spilled on Shaq (with the tacit assumption that he agrees to retire). Assuming the Cavs actually get past the Magic, his should be one of the more interesting stories this team has to offer. But before he can be crowned 6th best player of all time (if they fail, he'll be stuck at 7th), he's got an early challenge in Joakim Noah. Seeing how he does against Chicago's favorite ugly center (sorry, we're Garnett fans) may be a good indicator of what he'll bring to the Cavs this post-season. Similarly, going head to head against Shaq will be a good way to test the young Noah's mettle on both ends of the court. So far the consensus seems to be that Shaq is back, but let's see if the pattern holds over the rest of the quickest of all playoff series.

Prediction:
Cavs in 4