Friday, February 26, 2010

The Playoff Stucture: A Mathematical Approach

Firstly, nba.com stole our post and expanded it, as has now been done on several occasions. They did add some interesting statistics that I had overlooked (including number of back-to-back games and opponents' win record), however, so I recommend giving it a glance. Now to one-up the one-uppers (take this Stern, you bastard!):

March is approaching and it is time to start talking playoffs. I want to examine some possible opponents and see which ones the Jazz should hope to play. I've devised a way* to quantify the teams; the higher number assigned to a team, the better they are and the less Utah should want to face them (be forewarned, as this list may shock and disturb you):

1. Oklahoma City (??)-136.9

Yes, I know that this sounds ridiculous. But the formula used to derive these numbers is most heavily weighted by how the Jazz have played against the teams this year. The Thunder are undefeated by Utah at this point. Kevin Durrant has scorched us for 28 and 31 points. This number will certainly change if Utah can get a few wins in the last two games against this team, but be wary: they might be more dangerous than they appear.

2. Denver-119.9184

This makes sense. Denver has owned us this year, with one win in Utah without either of their superstars. I still would rather face Denver than L.A. in the playoffs, but the notion that the Jazz would perform much better against the Nuggets than the Lakers seems eroneous, certainly after their dominance against Utah this year.

3. Los Angeles-119.9055

This is the Lakers. They are very good and have played well against the Jazz this year. They are very slightly below the Nuggets, but they are essentially equally dangerous to the Jazz come playoff time.

4. Phoenix-75.0405

The suns are good, but they are not that good. The Jazz have been able to beat them this year and it makes sense that they are not in the same bracket as either L.A. or Denver. My analysis: I would love to play Phoenix in the first round.

5. Dallas-74.6955

Besides that first game, in which the Jazz blew a huge lead in the fourth quarter, Utah has handled Dallas easily this year. Jason Kidd is older and can't keep up with Deron Williams and they do not have the interior presence to compete with Boozer and Milsap. I like Utah's chances.

6. San Antonio-29.643

At this point, the remaining teams really take a plunge. The Jazz have completely dominated the Spurs this year. They swept the season series and have made this great team look old and haggard. Although I am cautious about wanting to play them in the playoffs (they are the Spurs!!), I am optimistic and I think this number is appropriate for them.

7. Portland-27.329

Just like the Spurs, the Jazz own the Blazers this year. For more analysis, click here. Utah should love their chances if they somehow are matched up against Portland in the postseason.

Conclusions:
This method is not yet perfected, but it is an interesting one. I think it divided opponents into three classes (class one-LA, Denver, OKC; class two-Dallas, Phoenix; class three-San Antonio, Porland) and that these classes are pretty accurate: the bottom class is easy, the second class is three times better, and the third class is about 25% better than the second. Oklahoma City was certainly a surprise, but maybe a correct one. We'll see. Anyway, I plan to keep using this formula and updating until playoff time so stay posted.

*-The formula was calculated as follows:
(PER rating + win total this season + number of playoff rounds a team has played in for the last five years) x (n+1/N+1)
n=number of wins against the Jazz this season
N=number of games played against the Jazz this season

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

"The drought is over"

After over 10 win-less years, the Hawks were finally able to steal a victory from the Jazz last night. What to make of it? I would argue three things can be concluded from this game: not much, the depth of this Jazz team's bench, and the lack of Ronnie Brewer.

Not Much:
Deron Williams (D-Hulk as he will now be referred to on this and all other blogs) was absent. He is the best player on this team, and arguably the best point guard in the league. He runs this offense and the Jazz would have won without him had they not gone ice-cold for a stretch in the fourth quarter and blown a six point advantage. It is precisely in these moments, when his team needs points and no one can get them alone, that D-Hulk shines. Also, Andrei was out. He is a long, semi-athletic player and could have been used effectively to bother some of Atlanta's guards, one of which (JJ) destroyed the Jazz last night. Thus, does this loss mean much in terms of how good this Jazz team is? Not really.

Depth:
Three players had positive scores (on the [+/-] scale) which is indicative of how deep this team is. Even without two starters, they are able to play a good game against a very good team. If the Jazz can remain healthy this season and secure a two or three seed for the playoffs, they can ride this bench against essentially any other in the league and win by doing it.

Brewer:
Hypothetical guesses about what would have happened had certain key variables (such as Brewer guarding Joe Johnson instead of C.J. Miles or Wesley Matthews) been different in sports is always a little silly, but I honestly agree with D-Hulk that this team is worse without number nine holding it down. His unique combination of speed, strength, legitimate athelitic ablility, and puppy-dog-alacrity is a very useful thing to have in this league. The 2-3 positions arguably contain the best players in the league (Lebron, Kobe, Carmello, Dwayne, Keven (D), Joe (Johnson),.......) and to guard them is difficult. Brewer was no Bruce Bowen (maybe a good thing?), but he certainly occupied an important role defensively for this team. This trade was not endorsed by this blog and I hope that it won't come back to haunt the Jazz in the playoffs when the have to face some of these star players.

For now, no big deal. Who knows if I'll feel that way later. Until then, we will continue to celebrate the humiliation of the Blazers as if last night didn't happen.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Utah Vs. Portland: Ascension

Sadly, since I don't live in Utah, I don't get to watch many of the Jazz's games. But thanks to ESPN's deal with the potential anti-trust violator Comcast, I got to watch today's game against Portland through ESPN360.com. I was preparing to write this post on why I'm still hopeful about the Jazz despite their somewhat pathetic loss to the Blazers. But Sloan, Williams, Boozer, and Fresenko all conspired to banish that post from the Internet. Even before I wrote it. The sorcerers! So now this post will go thusly:

I've long contemplated starting a series of posts on the best years in the NBA. Unfortunately, my knowledge of the league is limited, and I've only been watching since 1996 (and only intermittently at that). Nevertheless, my post would argue that my first year watching also happened to be one of Basketball's greats. There's the obvious awesomeness of the rookie class, Malone's MVP, the Jazz going to the finals, this, and Michael Jordan. But what made that year so spectacular for me was a game the Jazz played against the then pretty disreputable Denver Nuggets. I'm not sure if this was the first NBA game I ever attended (I certainly can't remember one before it) but it left the biggest impression of any I've seen. Although I can't remember too many of the details of the game (the NBA's rules were still a bit fuzzy to me), I do remember this: the Jazz were down by over 30 at the half. They came back and won. I remember the energy of that win, I remember my step-dad commenting, later that season, that that had been the moment during which the Jazz had taken off, had become a championship contender. That it was the moment they ascended. I've often wondered what Sloan said to them at the half. Anyway, that's long been my most cherished basketball memory. And, although much too early to tell, this game I just saw might be its exact echo.

So, what happened you ask? Well the Jazz were down by 25 at their worst. They were playing like the team we've known for the past few seasons, blowing it on the road, slipping. It didn't help that the Trailblazer's were pissed at their recent 20 point lost to Boston (boy, they must be pissed now, huh?) and came out with all guns blazing. They made a quick series of runs, and were soon up by 13 at the close of the first. They only built on this lead, and reached that 25 number I mentioned. But the Jazz didn't give up. They mustered the obligatory comeback and got it within 12 by halftime. Portland outscored them in the third. But they kept pushing in the fourth. They slowly and methodically drained the fat from Portland's juicy lead, getting within 10 then down to 4, where they stayed and stayed, until Boozer tipped one in at the buzzer. In OT it was no contest. The Jazz chopped McMillan's head off. What made the difference? Here's a few random notes, in no particular order, on why the Jazz are on the ascent, and I mean to the top.

They can't be rattled. They stuck with the game and kept playing, methodically waiting for the law of averages to cool the once red-hot Blazers and guarantee that they're shots that kept uncannily rimming out would eventually drop. They didn't give up and sit down, or fight the crowd, they coolly and methodically dismantled the Rose Garden piece by plaid piece.

Deron can't be rattled. Early in overtime Deron, who was 3 for 13 (or something like that) at the time, took a nice look and sunk it, with no mind for the past or future, living in the present like a Zen Master.

The Jazz can get constructively mad. This is a concept I don't really understand because it's not how anger affects me. Nevertheless, the Jazz, especially Sloan and Williams, can get pissed, and channel it into explosive cross overs and daring plays. Jordan could do it, it's a rare thing, and it's not how today's top players seem to operate. LeBron and Wade being too jovial and Kobe too aloof, but it works for the Jazz.

Boozer is an awesome passer. Boozer's passing game is quite great, especially inside, which is an amazing asset.

Fresenko can play. Boozer obviously deserves a lot of credit. His insane 23 rebounds were more than his points (by one) and a career high. But Fresenko's defensive ability, his rebounds, his awesome slow dunks, and his hard work and lack of blunders was probably the crucial factor.

Deron played the shit out of some defense. Twice at the end of the game, when the pressure was on, Deron successfully guarded Roy incredibly tightly and didn't let the Blazer's score. His is a tough defensive style that will probably earn the ire of many Blazer's fans and other fools. But there is no question. William's game is reaching the level of genius, and he is quickly showing how he can do anything (as long as he's angry).

The Jazz are deep. Not all pistons have to fire for this engine to run smoothly. Kirilenko went out early with back spasms. Okur was absent due to his child's birth. Don't even mention Brewer, especially not to Williams. And added to these absent men, there were the many players who weren't playing at their peak. Nevertheless Milsap's ability to score amidst guys who resemble redwoods and a couple of key 3s from Korver proved that if someone slips, there's 4 more options.

Finally, the intangible. The unknowable. Perhaps its luck, or the force of history. But that ability to claw your way back, hold off against a rallying team, or have a ball magically fall when you need it is what makes great teams great. You will win when you need to, despite the pressure and the annoying length of Marcus Camby, you will find a way. It won't necessarily be pretty, as tonight's win certainly wasn't, but you will get a win. That is what the great teams have and, after tonight, Utah has ascended to greatness.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Knowledge God

In the storied tradition of Wu-Tang imagery and profound commentary, let's discuss the end-game for the Jazz. After the trade deadline, here are some interesting facts on the remaining schedule. I decided to look at the Jazz and their three biggest contenders in terms of playoff spots: the Nuggets, the Mavericks, and the Thunder. The Jazz will play 16 more times on the road, the Nuggets 15, the Mavericks 12, and the Thunder 15. Given that the Jazz are riding the biggest winning streak on the road since the days of Malone and Stockton cheating and fouling all the time (damn you Sloan, you evil mastermind!), the road games are no longer as big a deal as they once were. In fact, the Jazz have a better road record than the Nuggets. Next, the Jazz play 3 more games against teams with a better record. The Nuggets play 6 of these games, the Mavericks 6, and the Thunder 9. Advantage? Utah. Lastly, the Jazz play 15 more games against playoff caliber teams, compared to 17, 14, and 15 from the Nuggets, Mavericks, and Thunder respectively.

When you put all that together, it means that the Jazz have a legitimate chance of getting the 2nd seed out west. I am not alone in thinking this, despite what a pessimistic AJohnston may say. Either way, the Jazz are certainly looking good for a 3 or a 4 seed, which bodes well for a first round playoff victory. In honor of the Popperian, here is a bold, falsifiable hypothesis: the Jazz get the 2nd seed in the west. It's today's mathematics, son.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Trade Day: In Review

This year marked a more exciting than usual, but still not as exciting as some hoped, trading deadline. Nevertheless, some exciting things happened. Keeping with this blog's storied tradition, I thought I would examine the day through the solipsistic lens of what it means for Jazz fans. First of all, it seems the Knicks cleared house, getting rid of (in rough order of importance) Nate Robinson, Darko Milicic, Cash, Jordan Hill, and Jared Jeffries. And acquiring in their stead Tracy Mcgrady, Edie House, J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker, and Brian Cardinal. This is important because the NBA trade rules allow New York to dump all the money they've splurged on nobodies (see above list) all at once when McGrady's (and others') contract runs out this summer. That'll leave them with a huge amount of money to land LeBron, Dwayne Wade, or Chris Bosh or maybe even two of those dudes (more on that below). But all that future of basketball in New York stuff aside, this is good news for the Jazz. It looks like New York has completely and utterly given up on this season and is now willing to take a knee, muddle its way through till the end, and recoup during the off-season. That will rise the value of their first round draft pick, which the Jazz own.

And, speaking of the Jazz, they had a spirited day of talks with Miami. The Heat front office came at them with a crazy-desperate-last-minute, non-stop list of names for a possible Boozer deal. The Jazz held their ground, as they have all season, even when Chalmers and Beasley were added to sweeten the deal. What this tells me is that the Jazz think they've got this season locked enough that they can attract real talent next year on the strength of their green jerseys and Deron, Don. It also tells me that Miami is seriously and severely worried that D-WADE! will leave them if they can't acquire anyone whose presence would put the heat in serious contention (I write Dwayne's nick-name like that because it's the least respect I can show him, his normal, terrible nickname being not worthy of his skill). And while the ship has not yet sailed on that (they might sign Stoudemire, whose Suns turned them down today and yesterday, in the off-season). It's looking screamingly likely that the Heat's management are too incompetent to hold onto their golden god. I see him in NY along with Bosh (after my dream finals of Nuggets vs. Cavaliers, I see both LeBron and Anthony sticking with the teams that brought them this far [oh shit, they're playing as I type and are tied 102 -102!!!!]).

The Jazz also traded my favorite puppy-dog/explosive dunker Ronnie Brewer for some garbage Memphis pick and cap-space relief, so we'll see how I feel in a few days. But as of right now I'm cautiously optimistic that this was a pretty good day for the Jazz. Our show runners seem to know what's up, New York is conspiring to help us, and while nothing happened to really shake up the West (possibly sinking our foes), such a shake-up might have spelled our doom. We know where we fit in this West, and that's as the third best team. We can beat all of these teams with the dual exceptions of Denver and LA. Nothing about Trade Day drastically changed that.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Yes, it is real

We are fast-approaching the all-star break, and we have already passed the half-way point of the season. The Jazz are currently in 4th place in the west (were I not so modest, I would point out that this is precisely the prediction of this blog for this team) and they are only a 1/2 game back from the Mavericks. They have won tiebreakers against the Blazers, the Spurs, and the Mavericks so that, if there is a tie, the Jazz will have home court advantage, a cherished prized that is arguably more important in Utah than anywhere else in the league. They have been playing truly amazing basketball as of late, winning in the presence and absence of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams. Clearly, at least for the past month or so, this team has found itself and has the urge to win.

After a little analysis, my optimism soars higher. If the Jazz can beat the Nuggets on Saturday (keep in mind that the Nuggets are playing their contested rivals the Lakers tonight, in LA, which means that they will probably be both physically and emotionally and mentally tired for the Utah game), then the Jazz creep nearer to a coveted second seed in the West. Also, the Lakers are not as dominant as they were last year. The West does not appear to be Kobe and then everyone else. When examining the remaining schedule for this year, it becomes apparent that this is no longer a fictional dream. The Jazz have five games remaining against teams with a better record (2 Lakers games, 1 Nuggests game, 1 Hawks game, and 1 Celtics game), four of which are at home. They then have 12 games against teams that are of a rougly similar, albeit worse record (against the Rockets, Hornets, Thunder, Suns, and Blazers). Let's assume that the Jazz lose all 5 of the hard games (which they won't) and let's assume that they lose half of the 12 somewhat easier games (again, which they probably won't). That puts the Jazz at a record of 53-29, a formidable record, probably yielding a 2nd seed. Also according to Hollinger, the Jazz will end up in 2nd place out West. I used to think this was silly, more representative of their recent play than thier true talent. Now, I don't. Kevin O'Connor, Jerry Sloan, don't trade away Boozer, don't mess with this team, this is real.