We Killed The Heat: You're Welcome Cleveland

Two years ago, an injured Jazz team went on a February tear, going 15 and 1 and winning 12 in a row. Everyone started to talk about the Jazz being the best kept secret, a team everyone had slept on that would actually be able to put up a very big fight. Then the Jazz lost to the Atlanta Hawks. That loss set them back a little, but they rose to fight on. The next team on their schedule was the Miami Heat, an only OK team. The Jazz, who at this point were not adept at ever winning away from Salt Lake (or crushing bad teams), took a lead and seemed like they would hold on down the stretch. But they failed. Committing turn-over after turn-over, failing to score on fast-breaks, and a general lack of killer instinct allowed the Jazz to let the Heat back into the game late in the fourth. The same thing happened in overtime number 1: we got up early, failed to hold on, Dwayne Wade scored a gillion (actually, just 50). And, amazingly, again in overtime number 2. Then, in overtime 3, the Heat ran away with it. I knew, frantically reloading the gamecast on my computer screen, that we had just suffered a devastating blow, one that had destroyed our season. We limped through some more games but could never recover the magic of February and ultimately exited the playoffs in the first round.

That was a blow to the Jazz, but one we ultimately recovered from, as evidenced by our recent play. Now we're so good we've gone for revenge. Early on in this season the Heat lost to the Celtics and the Hornets. Everyone wrote off the Celtics loss as the first game and the Hornets loss as a really close game against the hottest team in the league. People were still talking 70 wins. But then the Jazz came to Miami and, coming back from so far behind it seemed they couldn't see the Heat, let alone catch them, the Jazz coolly iced them on a Millsap career night. Up until that point the Heat had been congealing into a really good team. They completely joked on the Magic, shutting them down harder than Boston or LA could and, apparently (in games I didn't watch), did similar things to other teams that would get laughed out of the West. But after the Jazz took it to them people started to grumble, asking if the 70 wins, Finals in five, scenario might be more fantasy than reality. And that seems anathema to the guys on that team: their Kryptonite is being questioned. As soon as it began they proceeded to loose to every single team with a record better than .500. The Heat were always going to be met with a lot of vitriol, but they could have buckled down and welcomed it, much like the guys from the youtube video I am currently obsessed with would have. Instead, they have begun a circular firing squad. It seems like LeBron or his people have leaked his displeasure with Spoelstra to the press and that any day now, Mike Brown will be the Heat's head coach (ESPN will be setting up a Spoelstra suicide watch very soon).

This team will go through some very public pain and may be forced to trade one of the much hyped big three. All because an unheard about Millsap (Knapp sack) went off against an otherwise tightly controlled defense. Which now can't defend to save it's life. Defense is all about trust and chemistry, knowing that when you block the lane or switch up your teammate will come in and pick up your guy. The Heat used to have that, they don't anymore. While they unravel, we keep rolling, beating a Lakers team firing on almost all cylinders, and having fun. As Dwayne Wade smugly put it after murdering the Jazz in 09, "Just another day at the office." As was his loss in Dallas. I think this Heat team will improve and end the season at 50 wins, losing in the second round of the playoffs. There will be a time when this seems brash and cocky, but right now the Heat are hurting. And if they fire Spoelstra they could be hurting a lot more before they're feeling good. So, for now, you're welcome Cleveland, hope you too get a chance to kick 'em while they're down on Thursday. To Miami I respectfully give this advice: if you want to stop being kicked then stop going to the office, stop bitching about each other, stop letting your egos inflate like you just won a championship, and thug up.

Panic?

As an addendum to C's excellent advice post I wanted to offer one of my own. I think its fair to say to Jazz fans that they shouldn't panic. We shouldn't celebrate emphatically, as we're likely the league's ninth best team or so, but panicking is not a good idea, given how crazy this summer was and how (relatively) painlessly our team seems to have adapted. There are other teams out there, however, and their fates don't seem to be looking as good. So my question is which teams performing below expectations should begin to panic? The Rockets are missing Mao, but are, in theory anyway, deep enough that that shouldn't matter. Nevertheless, their record is the second worst in the West (tied with Philadelphia's for the worst in the East). The Trailblazers, while still managing to sort of play decently due to a great set of role players, are missing their two stars to injury, maybe forever. And the Heat have drastically underperformed given the hope that they would be best team ever (still possible if they go on a 65-3 run).

With Minnesota, Washington, New Jersey, the Kings, and the Clippers seeming better than they have in years past (sorry Raptors) we might be finally entering an era of pretty evenly distributed basketball talent. It could be a basketball dominated by a few teams at the top, but not as dominated as it has been in recent years. That's good news for the fine people of Minnesota and the future fine people of Brooklyn, but bad news for those in Portland, Houston, and Miami that thought they would dominate. Do these problems seem bad only by dint of the natural overreaction that comes with limited data? Or are they actually damning? In other words is it time to chill or panic? And if so, should each team panic equally, or is Portland particularly screwed? Only two votes in 6 days will decide (see sidebar).

The Best Thing Ever?: A Video Essay

According to Elias, via the TrueHoop blog, via the delightful folk at The Basketball Jones, the Utah Jazz are the first team to come back from being ten points down in the second half to win three times in a row in the modern era (meaning, in this case, post introduction of the shot clock). That they did so after deficits of 18, 22, and 18 is impressive in itself. But that they did so on back to back games against two of the leagues top five teams, makes things all the sweeter. Beating the Heat was especially sweet (I can't wait to tweet, what a treat) and ridiculously improbable event. The Jazz's final output in regulation, during which they scored 14 points in 28 seconds, had they done that well all game would have them scoring 1,440. According to Hollinger, the odds of Williams, Kirilenko, and especially Millsap scoring their last 3s was 1 in 873. There's, of course, the fact that Millsap had never really taken 3s and that Miami dared him to do so, leaving a career 2 for 20 shooter open again and again. But none of these numbers hold a candle to actually seeing the performance:



Unbelievably awesome. The Jazz are down 8 and hit 3 after 3 as Miami misses only 3 of 11 free throws. After Millsap's last 3, Williams fouled out before the ball was even in play. So the Jazz had to play the last few seconds and all of overtime without him. Sloan had also decided to bench Jefferson, who was having a week night. And, at the end of the game, Fesenko took himself out, feeling that his free throw percentage was too risky and might cost the Jazz the game. So they finished things out with AK, CJ, Price, Millsap, and Elson out there. Sloan also coached the shit out of that shit. Pulling Jefferson at the right time, managing the clock brilliantly, and playing zone at the end to force Eddie House into taking a 3 with .4 seconds left. He played the zone again last night, which crippled Miami. I'm not sure why, but it seems like the Jazz have learned how to play it.

The awesome win against Miami came after Raja Bell gave a very inspiring speech to the troops at halftime, filled with discussions of heart, being underdogs, and other cliched sports things. In other words, filled with things that the FreeDarko group might disdain. But in their defense, they get results. What makes it so sweet I can barely keep it down, is that the Jazz lost in Miami back in 09, in a game during which they were up by several in the last few seconds. I remember watching that game on gamecast, and sickeningly believing the Jazz had put it away, only to see them blow it, blow it again in overtime, and then lose outright in overtime number 2. So, symbolically, this is huge. Beating the best team (eh, maybe 2nd best), at home, on a crazy comeback, to potentially spark a season as revenge for a season sunk in the same building? Come on, it's too sweet, even for you. What's also sweet is how many, shall I say, fair weather fans left the building at halftime and how many more did with 28 seconds left when they thought it was all over. Here's some Jazz comeback footage:



And here's some footage of their improbable victory against the Magic last night:



So why wasn't it the best thing ever? Well, Tracy McGrady did a similar thing to another team that was really, really good at defense. And while the Miami Heat are the most hated guys right now, and Millsap will probably get more credit for his destruction, the Spurs were actually defending.



Man, that guy's like the next Kobe! Anyway, as far as best things ever go, this recent Jazz development, good as it was, can still not hold a candle to this:


(H/T: Owen)

The Face of Evil

See that grainy, America's Most Wanted style picture? Good, now memorize it. If you ever see this man punch him in the gut. Spit in his face. He is all that is wrong with sports journalism. A shameless provacateur, a mock-outrage anger junkie. A man who writes highly opinionated, less than brilliant takedowns of the disgusting news media's fawning over LeBron and intersperses them with fawning bullshit coverage. This man is the enemy and I hate him with everything I'm worth. Either that or it's the most boring part of the year for followers of the NBA, post free agency excitement, post draft, pre warm up camps, and pre International Basketball contest that will determine which country has the best role players (all the stars are too busy to play at the FIBA 2010 World Championship, including the stars from other countries). In the absence of actual coverage, I propose we turn on each other. Why not? We've already turned on LeBron.

But some of us, Wojnarowski included, turned on LeBron way back when the season was still happening, well before the Decision, a remarkably stupid and respect burning event (in all eyes, but Miami's) in which LeBron announced his decision to leave Cleveland for tax free South Florida. While the decision was stupid and dropped the real LBJ's credibility (but not to a point he can't recover from), it does make sense if we follow the twisted path of one story line. This path was pursued by many fans, including self-proclaimed, "Hey I'm a fucking FAN, OK?" Bill Simmons. The story is that LeBron James doesn't care about winning (and he's probably un-American). Followers of this storyline insist that Jordan, Bird, and Magic all cared so much about winning, which is what makes them great, and that all LeBron cares about is dunks, which makes him less than great. It would seem beyond obvious that the aforementioned dudes played on teams that featured ridiculous talent and that LeBron didn't. Nonetheless, as these pricks have taken to the airwaves to proclaim that they would never, ever, do what LeBron did, I guess it needs to be pointed out. So here goes: Michael Jordan played with Scottie Pippin. Remember him? He took the Bulls to 50 plus wins and a barn-burning second round of the playoffs on his own. Jordan also had one of the best coaches, if not the best coach (but you should all know my opinion on the matter: he's not) in Phil Jackson. It wasn't Jordan who taught Rodman how to rebound. Indeed, Rodman had already logged 3 of the top 5 rebounding seasons of all time when he joined the Bulls. Not to mention the countless other All-Stars, 3 Point Contest Winners, all NBA defensive players, and all NBA team players who played with Jordan. I'm pretty sure Magic and Bird had similar, if not quite as many, gifts on their respective teams (Jabar, Riley, McHale, and Parish), but I wasn't paying very close attention to Basketball in the years before I was born. None of these guys were made good by Magic, Bird, or Jordan. They were already good. They may have been given the chance to shine on a bigger stage, maybe they were even made slightly better, but without the fad three, those teams were all very good.

Now, take the case of the Cavs. LeBron played with Mo Williams and Big Z. Very arguably, these two guys owe their status as having been All-Stars to his play. Similarly, fired coach Mike Brown, who won Coach of the year in 2009, almost certainly owed that to LeBron. And... that's pretty much it. The Cavs for the last two years were a 60 plus win team. If you want to measure LeBron against Michael Jordan you can measure how much each man's presence swung their team's abilities. When his airness returned, the Bulls gained 17 wins over the year he had been totally absent, and set the NBA record for the best season ever at 72-10. If the Cavs drop by less than this from their 66 ('08-'09), 61 ('09-'10, a season LeBron sat out the last half dozen games of) win heights, then we will have decisively proved Jordan better than LeBron. If they don't, however, I'm sure there will be some new excuse for the King's inferiority.

The point of this isn't that LeBron didn't break a lot of hearts and disgust a lot of people (me included) when he announced that he was going to Miami. The point is that if you were breathing down LeBron's neck in May for not wanting to win enough, for not being enough of a competitive asshole, then you should have cheered this new Miami team on. If, on the other hand, you hated him then and you hate him even more now (I'm looking at you Simmons, Wojnarowski), then I suspect that you were just looking for an excuse to tear him down. And that makes you a Michael Jordan level asshole, but with no chance of winning the NBA Finals.

C Murder

Celtics-Heat
I was waiting to write this, the last of the first round playoff prediction posts (frppp), until after I saw the much hyped reason Garnett got suspended for game two (video here). I'm glad I waited because it gives me more insight into this series, the only one between two eastern teams that I really feel like I know. The first of those links above discusses how Garnett is one of the worst figures in sports, he must have missed this guy. The article in question also defends Richardson for calling Pierce and Garnett "Actresses." OK. Anyway, back to the matter at hand, that video clip reveals the two teams, all bullshit brushed aside (which is to say all relevant basketball information which makes up 99.9% of who wins a game brushed aside). The Celtics are a rough and tumble lot, sure. They're compass, a slightly ridiculous and overenthusiastic Garnett, can be a bit of a joke sometimes, fine. But they care about one another. Once Garnett got to Boston back in '07, he engendered a sense in all of them that they are a team and that they will play and win together. He started a tradition in which, when a teammate falls, you run (sprint) to help him back up, patting him on the back and getting him back in the game. Watch a guy fall in Boston and you'll see that attitude. It is this attitude that allows the Celtics to be so effectively open to any player on offense and that sets the team up as a defensive monster. It is this spirit of camaraderie that won this team a championship, that Doc Rivers harnesses so effectively as a coach, and (full disclosure) the spirit that makes the Celtics my second favorite team. So, when you punch a guy in the stomach because you can't control your emotions when losing a game, its this kind of spirit that gets you elbowed in the head. Now this elbowing wasn't even nearly as extreme as I pictured it in my head, after all, while eccentric, Garnett is not insane nor is he Dennis Rodman but he is a good teammate. And he will stand by his man.

Contrast that with the Heat. A team that has a lot of promise but way more emotionally unstable loose cannons than any other team, even Denver. And next season, when Dwayne Wade (one can only pray) goes to New York to be paid by Jay-Z, this team will just be an ungodly, unstable mess. Beasley is talented but way too ready to punch people or burst into tears to be effective. Richardson is, well let's just say, a ho. And let me just be clear, there's good unstable and there's bad unstable. Good unstable is Artest, Garnett, Payton, and even Rodman (at times). They'll talk shit, act crazy, and get in your head, but they'll mostly just play basketball and play it well. They won't generally melt down and throw the whole game at the slightest provocation (though we all know those guys I just listed have melted down, but c'mon, blog with me). Then there's bad unstable, which characterizes many players on the Nuggets and Heat rosters. These guys cannot be depended on to finish when the pressure really mounts. They buckle and throw the series. I think it's a sort of team attitude and not just a trait of any given player. The Nuggets had it in droves back in the AI days, when they were all swagger, high scoring, and completely useless against the Lakers, Spurs, or any serious team. And despite Billups' effort to lead the team out of the wilderness, they can still fold like pants (thanks metaphors.com) when tough times come home to roost (thanks mixedmetaphors.com) -- see Mart, K during the final game of last years Nuggets-Lakers series. The Heat is rife with players that exude this ethos and without someone of Wade's caliber to calm them down/perform on the court (and in commercials), they will not see the playoffs again for a long time. I'll stick with my original prediction here (my first one was already disproved in Chicago) and say Cs win in 7, as they have trouble on the road in first round series. But I hope that they do win and that, when they do, they take the advice given in this post's title.

Interesting Stories:
See Above

Prediction:
Celtics in 7 (Game 1, Game 2, Game 5, Game 7)

Boozer Blues

It's time for an update on Carlos Boozer. Certainly for Utah fans, but perhaps for other basketball followers as well, this story is developing into one of the bigger ones of the summer. First there was speculation that there would be some sort of blockbuster trade with Chicago, Utah, and Portland. Then, there was the idea that the Jazz would frantically trade Boozer to Miami for nothing more that Udonis Haslem (!) and a maybe one or two more mediocre players. David Aldridge quickly squashed these ideas, and simultaneously made me realize that he is incredibly well connected in the N.B.A. so that when he talks, it is generally wise to listen.

After trade rumor after trade rumor died and others rose from obscurity to replace the older ones, I am left wondering what will happen with Boozer. At first, I was eager to see him go. The more I have followed the situation, though, I realize that he is probably a top five power forward in the league, and thus worth something. He will never take Utah to a finals appearance, and maybe this is why fans are so upset. He will consistently take them to playoff appearances, however, and perhaps he will do it better than anyone that they can get. So the Jazz are essentially stuck it the mud , damned if they do, damned if they do not. They will constantly be close enough to smell true greatness (all puns intended), but never quite taste it. This will be the case at least until the Boozer era comes to a close.

My favorite option is a trade for Michael Beasley. As Shoals points out, this is truly investing in the future. The Jazz also have that juicy first round pick from New York for next year, meaning they can do some serious rebuilding. Sloan has yet to fail me when coaching a player, so even though Beasley seems lost now, he may find new life in Utah. But before (and if ever) this happens, we will be stuck with good offense, bad defense, and many nearly reached dreams of glory.