Eastern Conference Predictions

If I may have your attention, I'd like to predict some playoffs.

1. The Heat: Apparently the Heat signed LeBron James and Chris Bosh over the summer. As another esteemed member of this blogging clique pointed out, whichever team signed LeBron (and maybe Bosh) would immediately switch places with the Cavs in conference standing. We all thought that would be the Nets or the Knicks. But it turned out to be the team that paid Dwayne Wade. Every night this team plays will be half an All-Star game, but with defense. Oh, also, LeBron really does seem to be mad this year and ready to take it out on the court, which may mean he channels another couple of angry guys who are DESTROYING AMERICA.

2. The Magic: The Magic were the second best team in the East last year and (against a Garnettless Celtics) the year before, too. Nothing has really happened to change that. They play a very good, but flawed game of basketball. One that can topple most teams, but not the league's 2 or 3 elites. The key to beating the Magic in the past has been two-fold: having a center quick and powerful enough to defend Howard (very rare in this league), and having guys who can get lay-ups so quickly that Howard will have to get into foul trouble to defend them. No team that lacked either of these components ever really had a shot. This year looks to be interesting in that the Heat cannot tackle the first horn of this dilemma, but can demolish the second with the force of an A-bomb. I think that this will lead these two teams to go at each other in a barn-burning, shoot-out filled Eastern Conference Finals. With the Magic hitting many threes and Howard slamming home glass rattling dunks while the Heat respond with ridiculous plays of their own. The albatross of Howard's fouls will eventually drag the Magic down in 6 (unless the Groundhog sees his shadow, then all bets are off).

3. The Celtics: Do the Celtics still have it? That depends on what you mean by 'it.' They are still a force to be reckoned with and never counted out (much like the Spurs from '05-'08). But, also like those Spurs, they are aging rapidly. They still have the beautiful defensive discipline that championships are made of, but without any player who is able to really create out of thin air, they are overly susceptible to the ebb and flow of basketball momentum. That means that if they ever hit some tough spots, which they will, they're sunk. Still one of my favorite teams of recent times, but no longer the Kobe-slayers of my dreams.

4. The Bulls: Utah East. The core is back, plus the much improved Jazz pieces of Brewer, Korver, and, above all, Boozer. These guys plus Rose and Noah could make for quite an awesome team. Unfortunately for them, Boozer's erratic talent will desert them during one of the winter months and he will, in all likelihood, get injured off some bullshit. Which is why, quite quickly in the second round, papi will get hit.

5. The Bucks: With Bogut back and Jennings (hopefully) enjoying the growth that comes with one's second season, last year's surprisingly likable upstarts (read Thunder East) might go even farther this year.

6. The Hawks: This team never really impressed me much last year (Mavericks East, just kidding, but seriously, I could do this all day... for a price) and their off-season "moves" seem to have justified my lack of interest. In my humble opinion, they just Knickerbockered themselves, right in the pants. Making sure a ridiculously bloated contract is on your books for years into the future is one of the best ways to end up at the bottom of the East's playoff list, or as its also known, Kings East.

7. The Bobcats: Just like last year... but in the future! This team, which I don't know all too well, has good defensive buzz, plus they're in the East, which is the most important qualification a team needs to have in order to qualify for the Eastern Conference NBA Playoffs .

8. The Wizards: I'm going to go out on a gamble here and say that this Wall kid is going to be very good. Like finally shutting some people up about Derek Rose good. That, plus Arenas coming back and proving himself against the naysayers -- his will be the 100 watt bulb to LeBron James' sun, will make this team good enough to get on the bottom of this prestigious list. Mark these the Warriors East.

That is all.

Western Conference Predictions

Here are the annual predictions for how the Western Conference will end up:

1. Lakers-The PG freebie will continue to pay dividends and the Lakers will remain on top.
2. Jazz-Overly optimistic? Certainly. I'm going to say that Big Al steps up and gets Boozer's 20-10 with an additional 1.2 blocks a game and Utah moves up to second in a tightly contested playoff race.
3. Blazers-I picked them in this position last year, and I'm hoping that they do not prove me wrong again.
4. Thunder-They will be good, but not that good.
5. Mavericks-Mark Cuban will make a number of trades and adjustments to see his team lose again. It helps when you don't fire Avery Johnson.
6. Nuggets-I see the Nuggets having another embarrassing first-round exit.
7. Hornets-Watching Paul's attempt to regain the crown of best PG in the league will be fantastic.
8. Spurs-They will succumb to the laws of aging and lose in the first round, but will still make the playoffs.

Inside the mind of the boss

The annual survey of what the NBA's general managers think came out today. The most important vote is clearly Deron Williams, who officially and for the first time surpassed Chris Paul as the best pg in the league, at least according to the guys who pay. This indicates that the Jazz had better be willing and able to shell out a max deal in a few years, because some other people certainly will. Interestingly, the GMs went with the general trend of jumping on the OKC bandwagon, first picking Durrant as the most likely MVP and second by picking the youngsters to win the Northwest division. They still agree (at least 68% of them) that LBJ is the best small forward, strangely enough. I'll say it right now, and you can mark it down for later: OKC is overrated. Durrant is amazing. They are a fun and explosive team. But I would be very surprised if they win the division and if Durrant wins the MVP. They are not great defensively and this division is home to the Jazz, Nuggets, and a potentially healthy Portland team (that owned them last year regardless). Sports fans (and apparently owners too) fall into a peculiar trap year after year. They choose the team that surprised everyone last year by making a small splash in the playoffs to be the best, or an up and coming star to really take over. I haven't seen an empirical analysis of this yet, but I would bet it is very rare that such a team (e.g. the Packers in the NFL this season) actually lives up to the hype. So in the meantime, we will welcome the Thunder anytime to SLC and it's best-in-the-league home court.

JA strikes again

This article by J.A. Adande is definitely worth reading if you haven't read it yet:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp10/columns/story?columnist=adande_ja&page=LeBronRace-101001

"James never felt compelled to address the league's racial element when everybody was an ally. No one wondered about the racial motivations of reporters and fans when they were writing praise and buying jerseys.That's because race doesn't affect acceptance, it affects tolerance. When people behave in a manner accepted by society at large they are easy for everyone to embrace."

Hate Up

Deron Williams told the press, “I hate the Lakers. They’re so good. I hate them because they win all the time. They’re a tough team. … We definitely talk about it. It’s not a secret. We hate the Lakers.”

I guess that's better than where we were a couple of years ago, but it doesn't leave me generally inspired. It strikes me as the kind of desperate, surrendering hate of a crazed populous movement whose members know they're about to loose at the polls. Or the kind of hate you might have for a guy who rudely pushes past you at a bar but could clearly kick your ass. You would love to yell at him and demand he develop some manners and apologize, but are unfortunately bound by the Nietzchean laws of physical morals: he who controls physical pain controls moral pleasure. -- the best revenge, they say, is living well. But I'll take this guy and his ability to inflict a Bad News Bear like ending in which Kobe at least gets knocked the fuck down and everyone runs off waving their middle fingers.

Easy Caricatures Becoming Reality Before Our Very Eyes

I can think of no better way to lose the American public than by telling them that race has something to do with their dislike of you. America is a country in which Race is a hugely touchy subject. Many white Americans realize that we have had racial problems in the past... and that it is therefore a very bad thing to be called racist. If you ever have a discussion in which you mention that they might see particular individuals as belonging to ethnic or other groups with certain negative characteristics, well, they'll flip they're shit. You can tell how unacceptable it is to be a racist because even the most extreme of characters will begin sentences "I'm no racist, but..." I think people put way too strong a point on this and that staunchly defending yourself from charges of racism is actually pretty counterproductive and leads to more racism and talking past one another, but it's the world we live in.

So when LeBron says things like this, I grimace. Right or wrong, that is something that many in this country will not abide (many think it is unfair that minorities can blame things that don't go their way on race, it's all in my forthcoming book Wu-Tang References, White America, Dinosaur Shaped Persons, and You). I don't blame LeBron too much, he made a stupid decision, both in terms of basketball and in terms of how he announced his stupid decision, but he's also a victim of ridiculous expectations and the slow news cycle of midsummer. What makes me grimace, however, is that all the silly caricatures of LeBron that began this summer -- in which he's a villain and what not -- are likely going to come true now. Making this race comment is a pretty sure fire way to continue the enmity with which LeBron has been met, and I can easily envision that going forward LeBron will view this bitterly. He'll think he gave them the winning team they thought they wanted, and they spat on him; so, why not become the villain they say he is? And he likely will. I can see it now, just like North Korea eventually became the 1950s American Caricature of itself.

Of course one day, if he wins, LeBron will be forgiven. You just have to look at the fawning coverage "folk" are giving to Vick while offering their dogs up for him to sign to know that LeBron will also one day enjoy more fawning. This is America, land of comebacks (and overly loud protest to accusations of racism, again, read my book). But I'm pretty sure that said fawning will come too late; LeBron will already have been the villain for too long, his mind irredeemably warped. Which is too bad. As we've seen with Rodman and Artest, the villain can be a fun guy to watch, but in the end his story is pretty sad. At least my evil LeBron James Halloween costume will make some sense this year, but not as much as it will make next year, and the year after that.

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