Firstly, nba.com stole our post and expanded it, as has now been done on several occasions. They did add some interesting statistics that I had overlooked (including number of back-to-back games and opponents' win record), however, so I recommend giving it a glance. Now to one-up the one-uppers (take this Stern, you bastard!):
March is approaching and it is time to start talking playoffs. I want to examine some possible opponents and see which ones the Jazz should hope to play. I've devised a way* to quantify the teams; the higher number assigned to a team, the better they are and the less Utah should want to face them (be forewarned, as this list may shock and disturb you):
1. Oklahoma City (??)-136.9
Yes, I know that this sounds ridiculous. But the formula used to derive these numbers is most heavily weighted by how the Jazz have played against the teams this year. The Thunder are undefeated by Utah at this point. Kevin Durrant has scorched us for 28 and 31 points. This number will certainly change if Utah can get a few wins in the last two games against this team, but be wary: they might be more dangerous than they appear.
2. Denver-119.9184
This makes sense. Denver has owned us this year, with one win in Utah without either of their superstars. I still would rather face Denver than L.A. in the playoffs, but the notion that the Jazz would perform much better against the Nuggets than the Lakers seems eroneous, certainly after their dominance against Utah this year.
3. Los Angeles-119.9055
This is the Lakers. They are very good and have played well against the Jazz this year. They are very slightly below the Nuggets, but they are essentially equally dangerous to the Jazz come playoff time.
4. Phoenix-75.0405
The suns are good, but they are not that good. The Jazz have been able to beat them this year and it makes sense that they are not in the same bracket as either L.A. or Denver. My analysis: I would love to play Phoenix in the first round.
5. Dallas-74.6955
Besides that first game, in which the Jazz blew a huge lead in the fourth quarter, Utah has handled Dallas easily this year. Jason Kidd is older and can't keep up with Deron Williams and they do not have the interior presence to compete with Boozer and Milsap. I like Utah's chances.
6. San Antonio-29.643
At this point, the remaining teams really take a plunge. The Jazz have completely dominated the Spurs this year. They swept the season series and have made this great team look old and haggard. Although I am cautious about wanting to play them in the playoffs (they are the Spurs!!), I am optimistic and I think this number is appropriate for them.
7. Portland-27.329
Just like the Spurs, the Jazz own the Blazers this year. For more analysis, click here. Utah should love their chances if they somehow are matched up against Portland in the postseason.
Conclusions:
This method is not yet perfected, but it is an interesting one. I think it divided opponents into three classes (class one-LA, Denver, OKC; class two-Dallas, Phoenix; class three-San Antonio, Porland) and that these classes are pretty accurate: the bottom class is easy, the second class is three times better, and the third class is about 25% better than the second. Oklahoma City was certainly a surprise, but maybe a correct one. We'll see. Anyway, I plan to keep using this formula and updating until playoff time so stay posted.
*-The formula was calculated as follows:
(PER rating + win total this season + number of playoff rounds a team has played in for the last five years) x (n+1/N+1)
n=number of wins against the Jazz this season
N=number of games played against the Jazz this season
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