I was able to tune in for the fourth quarter of today's rematch between the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. What struck me most was the coaching decisions at the end of the game. The Celtics have a tendency to lose identity during the last four minutes or so. With so many great offensive players, the first option is neither obvious nor consistent across games. Typically, Paul Pierce will attempt to take over, sometimes successfully, other times not. Game seven of the Finals last year ended with empty possession after empty possession as Boston saw its lead slip into a Lakers' victory. Similarly, on December 24th this year, the Celtics had worked toward a lead over the Magic only to lose the ability to score in the final minutes and thus lose the game. Today was different.
First, the match-ups all favored the Celtics. For a large portion of the last quarter, the Lakers had Blake, Bryant, and Brown as their point-wing-wing combination. This meant that Kobe had to play three while Blake dabbled as a two or one. Blake was either getting destroyed by hard screens while desperately chasing Ray Allen or getting destroyed by a quick Rondo move to the cup. Brown was very ineffective on offense. I thought that in terms of fourth quarter personnel, Rivers seriously out-coached Jackson. Then came the inevitable Celtics drought. As I screamed at the screen, begging for Garnet to get all the touches, Doc Rivers called plays that served exactly this purpose. Kevin either was taking his comfortable 18' jump shot or getting lobs from Rondo for low-post buckets. In crunch time, he is the C's best 1v1 scorer. Teams cannot afford to leave anyone else on the team open to double, as KG can pass the ball well. He took it to them, and the rain poured down in Staples Center as the Celtics did what they should have done 7 months ago.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
A Strange Time In Our Lives
I may have made this point before, but I think it bares repeating. We're currently living in a very exciting time in the NBA, but one that doesn't produce the best basketball. People often think of the best basketball as having occurred during the eighties and nineties. And there's no denying that the magic of Celtics Lakers (and occasionally those guys vs. the Pistons) produced some awesome games, series, rivalries, and sporting stories that will long be hailed as some of the best to grace professional sports. Ditto for the seemingly endless number of Western suitors in the nineties who, after waiting their turn and making their way to the front of the line, challenged Jordan's bulls for world supremacy... and predictably lost. That's just it. The NBA was pretty predictable back in those days. It was pretty obvious that Jordan's Bulls would rise up out of the East (and before that, that Bird's Celtics would) and that the competition for their challengers would be between a couple of teams (and normally you knew which one was going to win). These teams were always, indisputably great at playing Basketball. But their greatness came at a price: the league's talent was strongly concentrated in a few hubs and no one else had much of it. The league was pretty binary; either you were great or you stunk.
I think that this is what tends to happen during eras of basketball. One club, or several clubs, become known as places to go to get championships. Great players go there for their shot at winning. All the talent collects and, lo and behold, actually leads to a championship. This system is pretty self-reinforcing, and it quickly creates eras(e.g. Bird-Magic, Jordan). It's exactly what happened with Boston and LA, these past few years. Maybe we just lived through the Kobe-Garnett-Pierce-Allen era. And before that the Duncan-Ginobli-Billups era. Nearly every person thought, before this season began, that we had just entered the LeBron-Wade-Bosh era (with, perhaps, a lowercase thunder attached in a footnote). But everyone, myself included, seems to have underestimated exactly how transformative last summer's free agency buffet was.
As many, many teams cut salary and players in an attempt to sign LeBron, Wade, or Bosh, the league was shook up in crazy ways. Not only were players on all these teams up-rooted, but other players who really weren't on the same level as those guys were up-rooted too. That's why Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, and Amar'e all got max deals. And why Boozer and David Lee almost got max deals. Every one's anticipation at signing LeBron, Wade, or Bosh bid the price of players so high that all those guys, simply by dint of being free agents at the right time, were able to get magical, nearly unprecedented deals. All this has long been understood and mapped out, but what hasn't been studied as much as the crazy league wide implications this stuff had. Nearly every team was affected by the new structure. Hardly anyone remained untouched. The Bulls were trying to get LBJ or Dwyane "typo on birth certificate" Wade. They settled for Boozer. The Jazz used the trading cap to grab Al Jefferson. Meanwhile, the team that actually got the prized guys, the Heat, unloaded Beasley for nothing. In this way, the Timberwolves were doubly affected by the free agency feeding frenzy. And they were hardly alone. You'd be hard pressed to find a team where the Big 3's ripples did not reach.
What this means is that the basketball landscape was totally remodeled this year. The current Utah Jazz are only superficially similar to the Utah Jazz of last year. And this is true (with a few exceptions) throughout the league. What it means is that this era is still up for grabs. Things are crazy right now, and aren't likely to settle down for a while. It's never been this exciting to be watching the NBA because any team can win on any night. The Celtics lost to the Wizards tonight. The Spurs got destroyed by the Hornets. The Clippers beat the Lakers and Heat. The Mavericks ascended to godhood, and have quickly crashed back to earth. The Magic and Heat have had losing and winning streaks that have led to calls of coaches being fired and then, almost over night, arguments for Coach of the Year. This is exciting because, for the first time in a while, I have no idea who's going to come out of each conference (it will probably be the Lakers and Celtics, but it could just as easily be the Spurs, the Heat, and maybe even the Bulls). It is exciting because it makes nearly every game watchable. You don't know who's going to win before hand, and watching it go down is genuinely surprising and exciting.
Unfortunately, this new era of unpredictability means that basketball isn't as good. The Lakers are no longer the team that they were; they no longer play that kind of mercenary offense and stretch armstrong limbed defense that made me hate them and respect them every one of the past 4 years. And while the Celtics have shown flashes of their 07-08 selves, there's no denying that age and time have taken their toll. Something tells me the Spurs aren't going to finish as well as they've been playing and will, like the Mavs, revert back to the mean. There's no telling who will end up on top, both because all the bad teams are better and because the good teams are worse. This makes for some exciting and yet infuriating ball. Maybe this year is the inverse of the last one. Instead of tuning the regular season and playoffs out until the finals, maybe we should be watching every regular season game (Sixers-Suns!?!) with rapt attention before we go to sleep in June. Either that or we should wait a few weeks until a clear picture emerges and this whole lengthy thing is proven wrong. Maybe then we can safely declare this the LeBron-Durant era, like we've always wanted to. Until then, however, I think it's safe to say that we're living in the Love-Griffin-Bryant-Wesbrook-Rose-Allen-Williams-Smith-Johnson-Williams-Ellis-Bogut era, the Garnett-James-Ginobli-Nowitzki-Noah-Rondo-Boozer-Stoudemire-Nash-Duncan-Paul era, the Granger-Wade-Pierce-Odum-Gasol-Durant-Horford-Gay-Howard-Parker-Chandler-Martin era, or the NBA era for short.
I think that this is what tends to happen during eras of basketball. One club, or several clubs, become known as places to go to get championships. Great players go there for their shot at winning. All the talent collects and, lo and behold, actually leads to a championship. This system is pretty self-reinforcing, and it quickly creates eras(e.g. Bird-Magic, Jordan). It's exactly what happened with Boston and LA, these past few years. Maybe we just lived through the Kobe-Garnett-Pierce-Allen era. And before that the Duncan-Ginobli-Billups era. Nearly every person thought, before this season began, that we had just entered the LeBron-Wade-Bosh era (with, perhaps, a lowercase thunder attached in a footnote). But everyone, myself included, seems to have underestimated exactly how transformative last summer's free agency buffet was.
As many, many teams cut salary and players in an attempt to sign LeBron, Wade, or Bosh, the league was shook up in crazy ways. Not only were players on all these teams up-rooted, but other players who really weren't on the same level as those guys were up-rooted too. That's why Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, and Amar'e all got max deals. And why Boozer and David Lee almost got max deals. Every one's anticipation at signing LeBron, Wade, or Bosh bid the price of players so high that all those guys, simply by dint of being free agents at the right time, were able to get magical, nearly unprecedented deals. All this has long been understood and mapped out, but what hasn't been studied as much as the crazy league wide implications this stuff had. Nearly every team was affected by the new structure. Hardly anyone remained untouched. The Bulls were trying to get LBJ or Dwyane "typo on birth certificate" Wade. They settled for Boozer. The Jazz used the trading cap to grab Al Jefferson. Meanwhile, the team that actually got the prized guys, the Heat, unloaded Beasley for nothing. In this way, the Timberwolves were doubly affected by the free agency feeding frenzy. And they were hardly alone. You'd be hard pressed to find a team where the Big 3's ripples did not reach.
What this means is that the basketball landscape was totally remodeled this year. The current Utah Jazz are only superficially similar to the Utah Jazz of last year. And this is true (with a few exceptions) throughout the league. What it means is that this era is still up for grabs. Things are crazy right now, and aren't likely to settle down for a while. It's never been this exciting to be watching the NBA because any team can win on any night. The Celtics lost to the Wizards tonight. The Spurs got destroyed by the Hornets. The Clippers beat the Lakers and Heat. The Mavericks ascended to godhood, and have quickly crashed back to earth. The Magic and Heat have had losing and winning streaks that have led to calls of coaches being fired and then, almost over night, arguments for Coach of the Year. This is exciting because, for the first time in a while, I have no idea who's going to come out of each conference (it will probably be the Lakers and Celtics, but it could just as easily be the Spurs, the Heat, and maybe even the Bulls). It is exciting because it makes nearly every game watchable. You don't know who's going to win before hand, and watching it go down is genuinely surprising and exciting.
Unfortunately, this new era of unpredictability means that basketball isn't as good. The Lakers are no longer the team that they were; they no longer play that kind of mercenary offense and stretch armstrong limbed defense that made me hate them and respect them every one of the past 4 years. And while the Celtics have shown flashes of their 07-08 selves, there's no denying that age and time have taken their toll. Something tells me the Spurs aren't going to finish as well as they've been playing and will, like the Mavs, revert back to the mean. There's no telling who will end up on top, both because all the bad teams are better and because the good teams are worse. This makes for some exciting and yet infuriating ball. Maybe this year is the inverse of the last one. Instead of tuning the regular season and playoffs out until the finals, maybe we should be watching every regular season game (Sixers-Suns!?!) with rapt attention before we go to sleep in June. Either that or we should wait a few weeks until a clear picture emerges and this whole lengthy thing is proven wrong. Maybe then we can safely declare this the LeBron-Durant era, like we've always wanted to. Until then, however, I think it's safe to say that we're living in the Love-Griffin-Bryant-Wesbrook-Rose-Allen-Williams-Smith-Johnson-Williams-Ellis-Bogut era, the Garnett-James-Ginobli-Nowitzki-Noah-Rondo-Boozer-Stoudemire-Nash-Duncan-Paul era, the Granger-Wade-Pierce-Odum-Gasol-Durant-Horford-Gay-Howard-Parker-Chandler-Martin era, or the NBA era for short.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Stats cousin, that's what I got
Allow us for a moment to butcher a GZA line in the service of examining the use of statistical inference as it is currently employed in the NBA. It should be noted that our blog wholeheartedly endorses the use of such measures. We believe that mathematics are the best tools to create models which explain the natural world and edify our understanding of it. These tools, however, are not infallible. They must be understood and their utility clearly mapped out. While statistics of the NBA have greatly benefited the fans,the players, and the league, they are often stretched beyond any reasonable measure.
John Hollinger's team rating, for example, is supposed to be descriptive (not prescriptive). He says that "these rankings...give a quick assessment of all 30 teams so far in the season, since sometimes the standings can be misleading in this department." Yet, observe his column, which will rely tirelessly on these rankings as predictors for future success. If this model is meant for prediction, he should say so up front and we believe change a number of things about it (e.g. not weigh recent performance so heavily).
This is really the issue with statistics now. We have more and more wonderful models such as Hollinger's rankings that significantly outperform their older and more traditional counterparts (such as a simple win-loss record). We have been too quick, however, to throw out all other metrics of understanding and rely solely and rashly on the statistics. There are many times when we see something about a player, a team, or a game that the statistics miss, and in the end, we find ourselves vindicated by the results. Does this mean we should throw them out because they do not measure such things as heart, guts, or determination? Certainly not. Rather, it suggests that our knowledge of statistics and how they apply to basketball are still nascent in nature, and that they need time to develop before we place the heavy onus that we already do on them. If we are too hasty, they will certainly crumble under that weight.
John Hollinger's team rating, for example, is supposed to be descriptive (not prescriptive). He says that "these rankings...give a quick assessment of all 30 teams so far in the season, since sometimes the standings can be misleading in this department." Yet, observe his column, which will rely tirelessly on these rankings as predictors for future success. If this model is meant for prediction, he should say so up front and we believe change a number of things about it (e.g. not weigh recent performance so heavily).
This is really the issue with statistics now. We have more and more wonderful models such as Hollinger's rankings that significantly outperform their older and more traditional counterparts (such as a simple win-loss record). We have been too quick, however, to throw out all other metrics of understanding and rely solely and rashly on the statistics. There are many times when we see something about a player, a team, or a game that the statistics miss, and in the end, we find ourselves vindicated by the results. Does this mean we should throw them out because they do not measure such things as heart, guts, or determination? Certainly not. Rather, it suggests that our knowledge of statistics and how they apply to basketball are still nascent in nature, and that they need time to develop before we place the heavy onus that we already do on them. If we are too hasty, they will certainly crumble under that weight.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
New Feature: Craig Bolerjack Quote of the Night
If you're a Jazz fan and have ever watched the Jazz on TV then you've been subject to the tragicomic ejaculations that come out of Craig Bolerjack's mouth (also the guttural noises, but those are hard to reproduce in text). Bolerjack is a man's man, but unfortunately not a smart man's man, or a smart man's sports man's man. His understanding of basketball is limited to the phrases, "he stops, pops" and "buckle up." Bolerjack is, however, a funny guy, and we intend to honor him, misunderstandings and all, by posting a quote of the night from last night's Jazz game. This will be a very regular feature as Craig always says something quotable. Last night, when the Jazz shook off a ridiculously lethargic start and began to take it to the Clipper's in the second half, Bollerjack proclaimed to all the world what every Jazz fan was thinking:
"Put the alarm bell on because he's awake." - Craig Bolerjack 12/29/2010. Agreed.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
The Who's Who of Christmas, part 2
And now, dear readers, that it is no longer Christmas, enjoy part 2 of our single sentence descriptors of NBA teams.
1. Dallas- One last title run before the grave.
2. Denver- With Melo and lady Melo eyeing Brooklyn, all this team has to look forward to are the days when Chauncey becomes an assistant coach.
3. Golden State- Granted, watching Curry and Ellis play is like watching NBA jam players who are on fire run around, but that doesn't explain why they have nearly as many nationally televised games as wins.
4. Houston Rockets- Not even triple platinum advanced statistics can explain why Kevin Martin's wacky shot will always drop.
5. Los Angeles (lesser)- Aminu? Bledsoe? Griffin? Is one of the most promising young groups enough to overcome two decades of late night comedy jokes and this guy?
6. Los Angeles (greater)- I know I'm going out on a limb here, but I think these guys are a team to watch.
7. Memphis- Just one Lakers trade away from really having something.
8. Minnesota- One of sports' most fascinating stories in 2011 will be the boxing match between Kevin Love and Michael Beasley in one corner and David Kahn in another: the former will try to help a young team flourish while the latter tries to destroy it from the inside.
9. New Orleans- A disappointing reversion to the mean for the hornets cannot bring Seattle's spirits down; NBA ownership is the best news since the drafting of Durant.
10. Oklahoma City- These kids are alright.
11. Phoenix- Making Carter and Gortat into All-Star players is nothing for the undying vampire-emperor Drac that you mortals know as Steve Nash.
12. Portland- Second team should still make the playoffs, first team should beat all the other hospital patients in a game of pickup.
13. Sacramento- My condolences to the Kings for the early death of Tyreke Evans; in lieu of flowers the team has asked that you send cash.
14. San Antonio- Divorce, no Bowen, new players -- nothing can stop the unstoppable and I for one salute our new overlords.
15. Utah- Comeback? We been here for mad years.
1. Dallas- One last title run before the grave.
2. Denver- With Melo and lady Melo eyeing Brooklyn, all this team has to look forward to are the days when Chauncey becomes an assistant coach.
3. Golden State- Granted, watching Curry and Ellis play is like watching NBA jam players who are on fire run around, but that doesn't explain why they have nearly as many nationally televised games as wins.
4. Houston Rockets- Not even triple platinum advanced statistics can explain why Kevin Martin's wacky shot will always drop.
5. Los Angeles (lesser)- Aminu? Bledsoe? Griffin? Is one of the most promising young groups enough to overcome two decades of late night comedy jokes and this guy?
6. Los Angeles (greater)- I know I'm going out on a limb here, but I think these guys are a team to watch.
7. Memphis- Just one Lakers trade away from really having something.
8. Minnesota- One of sports' most fascinating stories in 2011 will be the boxing match between Kevin Love and Michael Beasley in one corner and David Kahn in another: the former will try to help a young team flourish while the latter tries to destroy it from the inside.
9. New Orleans- A disappointing reversion to the mean for the hornets cannot bring Seattle's spirits down; NBA ownership is the best news since the drafting of Durant.
10. Oklahoma City- These kids are alright.
11. Phoenix- Making Carter and Gortat into All-Star players is nothing for the undying vampire-emperor Drac that you mortals know as Steve Nash.
12. Portland- Second team should still make the playoffs, first team should beat all the other hospital patients in a game of pickup.
13. Sacramento- My condolences to the Kings for the early death of Tyreke Evans; in lieu of flowers the team has asked that you send cash.
14. San Antonio- Divorce, no Bowen, new players -- nothing can stop the unstoppable and I for one salute our new overlords.
15. Utah- Comeback? We been here for mad years.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
The Who's Who of Christmas, part 1
Feeling the Christmas spirit, we here at tgrtns felt it necessary to traverse through the NBA and discuss each team's season with a single-sentence descriptor. Enjoy!
1. Atlanta- Mediocrity returns with a vengeance.
2. Boston- Rappers steppin' to me, they want a brick son, but I'm the chef, my price is 26 son.
3. Charlotte- Disappointment breeds contempt.
4. Chicago- Thibodeau for COY, unfortunately.
5. Cleveland- LeBron's supporting cast should be good for 30 wins this year.
6. Detroit- Besides Charlie V. offering to fight Kevin G., arguably the most boring team in the league.
7. Indiana- Great Granger, perfunctory pacers.
8. Miami- LeBron is neither so evil, nor so selfish, just a little dumb.
9. Milwaukee- Fear the injury.
10. New Jersey- New coach, new owner, new future city...נו?
11. New York- The NBA's best 2010-2011 renaissance story for one of its best cities.
12. Orlando- It didn't work the first time, but why not give big blue a second chance?
13. Philadelphia- Too soon to say, but the sixers might sneak into the playoffs this year.
14. Toronto- "Boshless Charity Squad"-Matt Palzkillah
15. Washington- Most hyped rookie to not even mentioned among top three (but boy, can he dance).
1. Atlanta- Mediocrity returns with a vengeance.
2. Boston- Rappers steppin' to me, they want a brick son, but I'm the chef, my price is 26 son.
3. Charlotte- Disappointment breeds contempt.
4. Chicago- Thibodeau for COY, unfortunately.
5. Cleveland- LeBron's supporting cast should be good for 30 wins this year.
6. Detroit- Besides Charlie V. offering to fight Kevin G., arguably the most boring team in the league.
7. Indiana- Great Granger, perfunctory pacers.
8. Miami- LeBron is neither so evil, nor so selfish, just a little dumb.
9. Milwaukee- Fear the injury.
10. New Jersey- New coach, new owner, new future city...נו?
11. New York- The NBA's best 2010-2011 renaissance story for one of its best cities.
12. Orlando- It didn't work the first time, but why not give big blue a second chance?
13. Philadelphia- Too soon to say, but the sixers might sneak into the playoffs this year.
14. Toronto- "Boshless Charity Squad"-Matt Palzkillah15. Washington- Most hyped rookie to not even mentioned among top three (but boy, can he dance).
The Magic Poem Christmas Post
A Poem for "Magic";
for Earvin "Magic" Johnson, Donell Reid, and Richard Franklin
By Quincy Troupe
take it to the hoop, "magic" johnson
take the ball dazzling down the open lane
herk & jerk & raise your six foot nine inch
frame into air sweating screams of your neon name
"magic" johnson, nicknamed "windex" way back in high school
'cause you wiped glass blackboards so clean
where you first juked & shook
& wiled your way to glory
a new styled fusion of shake & bake energy
using everything possible you created your own space
to fly through -- any moment now we expect your wings
to spread feathers for that spooky take-off of yours
then shake & glide till you hammer home
a clotheslining deuce off glass
now, come back down with a reverse hoodoo gem
of the spin, & stick it in sweet popping nets
clean from twenty feet right side
put the ball on the floor, "magic"
slide the dribble behind our back, ease it deftly
between your bony stork legs, head bobbing everwhichaway
up & down, you see everything on the court, off the high
yoyo patter, stop & go dribble, you shoot
a threading needle rope pass sweet home to kareem
cutting through the lane, his skyhook pops the cords
now lead the fastbreak, hit jamaal on the fly
now blindside a behind the back pinpointpass for two more
off the fake, looking the other way
you raise off balance into tense space
sweating chants of your name, turn 360 degrees
on the move your legs scissoring space like a swimmer's
yoyoing motion in deep water, stretching out now
towards free flight, you double pump through human trees
hang in place, slip the ball into your left hand
then deal it like a Las Vegas card dealer off squared glass
into nets living up your singular nickname, so "bad"
you cartwheel the crowd towards frenzy
wearing now your electric smile, neon as your name
in victory we suddenly sense your glorious uplift
your urgent need to be champion
& so we cheer, rejoicing with you for this quicksilver, quicksilver, quicksilver
moment of fame, so put the ball on the floor again, "magic"
juke & dazzle, shaking & baking down the lane
take the sucker to the hoop, "magic" johnson
recreate reverse hoodoo gems off the spin
deal alley-oop-dunk-a-thon-magician passes, now
double-pump, scissor, vamp through space, hang in place
& put it all in the sucker's face, "magic" johnson
& deal the roundball like the juju man that you am
like the shonuff shaman man that you am
"magic," like the shonuff spaceman you am
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