One Quick Note

I just wanted to say, before we watch LeBron's decision and begin to read all the negative columns that will immediately follow on its heels, that LeBron may have lost me. I have been a LeBron defender for a number of years (I may yet post some e-mails between a friend and myself, arguing Kobe vs. the real LBJ, to prove it -- or because there will be no other basketball news). But the King's shameful, tone-deaf to the degree of a third world dictator (one who insists on conducting the symphony, if you prefer your metaphors a little unmixed) decision to announce where he'll sign in primetime television has even me a little outraged. The only thing that will justify this reality TV show (and by justify I mean make it in poor-taste but still well meaning, instead of psychotically cruel) is for James to re-sign with the Cavs. That's a nice sports story about a man who loyally stayed with his home town, rather than going for wins and self-serving fame. Sure, it will still be the act of an egotistical man, but a man to whom some stuff matters. If, on the other hand, LeBron signs with Miami -- as all reports indicate he will -- it will stand as the act of a scared, out-of-touch, and disastrously arrogant man. One who doesn't seem to understand how basketball teams work (even if the Heat succeed, which I doubt, how can anyone argue they will succeed as a team and not three egos?), and one who is scared to shoulder responsibility alone. It will mark him not as a leader, but as a follower, and a follower of poor decisions at that. I won't be hating LeBron as much as I do hate Kobe (he'll probably have to mess with my family for that), but I don't think I'll ever be able to love him again (not even with sports love, which is little more than a passing admiration and respect in all but the most ardently felt cases).

It's important to note, however, how we got here. Less than a year ago we all saw a different LeBron James. With the release of the documentary about his high school days and the book he co-authored with Buzz Bissinger, LeBron gave a flurry of media interviews, some of which I listened to or watched. In those interviews he does not at all come off as the conceited man he now appears to be. He instead seems to be very much like the nice, popular kid in high school. A kid aware of his privilege -- albeit, not entirely -- who keeps a foot in every social group. He could geek out, if ever so slightly, with the nerds, joke around with the jocks, revel in good fortune with the rich, and bring some heft and respect to his discussions with everyone else. He seemed aware of who he was and not without respect for others. He was a golden boy, liked by everyone, who liked everyone back. Although this may have been as much artifice as today's capital D "Decision," I doubt it. LeBron, as he is proving this summer, does not have the political instinct. His mishandling of this situation, complete with smug donation to the Boys and Girls Club, seems to confirm that he's not a very good actor and bad at intuiting what people want to hear. So I believe the other Lebron, the one from last year and before, was the real James.

So what happened? I think that the media, in its much maligned minute by minute news-cycle (but you can't really blame the media, or at least I can't, as I spent much of today refreshing various wepages and reading all I could about LeBron's choice; where there's demand, supply will follow) has hyped and hyped and inflated and inflated this free-agent class to the point that it distorted LeBron's own understanding of it and of his own worth. He, the boy who seemed able to handle (at least decently) the acclaim poured on him since high school, became more and more narcissistic as he entered onto the World Stage. After being told so many times that July 1, 2010 was the most important date in NBA History, he started to believe it. I think that LeBron's crew is mostly filled with sycophantic cronies and high school buddies. Dudes who may mean well, but can't advise him what to do while on the top. No one can ever help anyone else in this position, because being on the top necessarily means being alone. When faced with the situation, some people stand tall and prove their momentous worth; these people ascend to godhood. Others crumble. And many achieve heroic heights and then tragically crumble later (Michael Jordan is the best b-ball example, but history's pages are littered with people who fit that story). Thankfully most of us will never have to know how we would fare when looking down from the peak (likely, many of us would weaken and collapse). Unfortunately for James, he does have to face this challenge. And all reports seem to indicate he will run scared. Humanly understandable, but not the kind of thing one would expect from the once and future king.

In Trade All Over The Place

Since sports reporting is several light years behind political reporting, we're forced to turn to other sources for information during this momentous time; namely, the free market. I trust the fine folks betting their money to do the job of finding out information on LeBron a lot more than I trust the half-assed reporting of Chris Broussard. So what is the free-market saying (in the fine form of intrade.com)? Basically it's all over the place. When I started writing this post, it was 50-50 for LeBron staying in Cleveland, which is pretty good, considering its automatic plurality status. Now it's reporting a 30% chance LeBron stays which is considerably less, but still may be a plurality. What does this tell us? Probably that not too many people are trading on LeBron and therefore there's not that much information out there. People are panicky and acting with little to no reason. All of which is a long waste of saying, if you're coming here for information (I C you Johnston), you'll likely be disappointed.

Next Year's Lockout

This just in: Donnie Walsh and Rick Sund have completely and utterly forfeited their future rights to complain should the NBA enter a lockout next season over player's contracts by signing Amare Stoudemire and Joe Johnson, respectively (in such a scenario, managers and owners will complain about players' ridiculous contracts when the Collected Bargaining Agreement expires in early fall, 2011). Meanwhile, back in 2010, owners and managers are busy happily signing as many ridiculous contracts as they can. Stay tuned for further ridiculous max amounts of money being offered for Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer (a slight overpayment in the first case, a Knicks/Hawks level overpayment in the second).

These deals make little sense. Cap space was cleared to pay for the (justified) max contracts of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. But since there are only two such guys worth max money available this year (and only a handful more in the league), and since there are many teams with spending cash that will be gone should they not lavish it on players, anyone lucky enough to be up as a free agent who has played in a couple All-Star games can expect a max deal. I think it would make a lot of sense for some of these teams to wait for Carmello Anthony, Brandon Roy, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Durant (among others) all of whom will become free-agents before Stoudemire's new contract is up (not to mention Johnson's ridiculous 6 year max contract, which might, should LBJ go to Chicago, prove that Johnson is better than LeBron, according to the free market). There is an argument that some revenue will be lost from empty seats while these teams wait around for the potential free-agents to maybe sign with their squads, but surely Amare is not a solution to that problem. Things are going to be pretty grim in Madison Square Garden unless The King plays there (this is, after all, a recession). Making the Stephon Marbury mistake again will hardly help New York reclaim its glory days of losing in the finals that one time (and that other much worse time). It may turn out that this year's big free-agency losers: The Clippers, and maybe the Nets, will be its biggest winners come a few years in which they can snag some good picks and spend some saved cash; its biggest winners, that is, besides whatever team signs two of the Bosh, Wade, James triplets. To this mystery team I must offer my most sincerest congratulations and support in Beating LA. Bash their skulls in guys.

Are we there yet? (Portland Trail Blazers and Free Agency)

It appears that the Portland Trail Blazers' free agent odyssey may be coming to an end today. According to various sources, and confirmed by his agent, Andre Miller has agreed in principle to don Blazer colors next year. The 3 year deal would guarantee somewhere between the mid-level exception and $7 million/year for two years with the third being a team option. Although Pritchard claims that "as of now no deal is done", this is likely just a hedge considering recent free agent luck.

If the Blazers were out of the picture, Miller would likely have gone to a team at the $5.85 million mid-level exception for a multiple year deal. Or he could even have stayed with Phily for their one year offer of the same before they withdrew it today. Portland was one of only 2 teams that could offer more, but insofar as they wanted to do so to differentiate themselves and assure a pick-up, I am not completely opposed to the idea. Personally, I have already expressed my support for a reserved off-season with no major moves but I feel this is somewhat of a compromise. It is certainly nowhere near the $50+ million 5-year contract that was offered to Turkoglu.

Yes, Miller is 3 years older than Hedo but I feel that with both being over 30, the shorter contract accomplishes nearly the same thing but with more flexibility. And although I would have preferred Millsap, this deal seams fairly realistic in comparison with his $32 million 4-year offer. (It's important to note that the Millsap offer also helped significantly change the division landscape, keeping the Jazz from retaining both Boozer and Millsap). Again, I would have chosen youth first but I suppose there are advantages to adding a veteran to the squad. It would certainly fill the Blazers' desire for a veteran point gaurd that has led them to pursue everyone from Kidd to Hinrich over the last couple years. I have to say I'm glad to see JKidd safely back in Dallas...

Although he's older, Miller is durable and has missed only 3 games over his 11 seasons. And for a little perspective, some other NBA players of comparable age (I'll say 32+) or older include Duncan, O'Neal, Nash, R. Allen, Garnett, Carter, A. Jamison, and Billups. Regardless of matching up talent-wise, at least we see that players still contribute significantly at that age. In terms of age, I feel relatively unpassionate either way on this issue.

As a side note, if the contract were any longer it would have subjected the team to the "over 36" contract provision that allows players who turn 36 during their contract to have the last year's pay treated as deferred compensation and distributed over earlier years of the contract. This could potentially create problems for the team financially, however if it indeed became an issue the 3rd year team option should provide relief.

Just like the financial and age sides, I am similarly lukewarm (but positive) regarding the skillset that Miller offers the Blazers. On one hand, he is a veteran who for the last two years helped coach his team to the playoffs despite significant injuries. He is a physical, post-up guard who has good slashing/passing skills and he would also be an upgrade as far as pick & roll offense and midrange scoring/efficiency. Perhaps even more importantly, he would be an addition that, like Turkoglu, would relieve pressure for Roy to create the majority of offense.

That said, Miller is a liability from 3-point range. There is really no other way to put it as he is one season removed from consecutively averaging 5.3 and 8.8 percent from behind the arc. Even though these numbers are outliers, for his carrer he comes in at a whopping 21 percent. Let's put it this way, even Kevin Garnett shoots significantly better from 3.

In the end, I would probably have favored the Blazers to keep their cap space and look for more options as other teams try to slim down for the Lebron/DWade/Bosh/etc free agent class of 2010. However, depending on the final contract numbers I don't mind this move that much and remain relatively excited about the prospective results next season.