Stats cousin, that's what I got

Allow us for a moment to butcher a GZA line in the service of examining the use of statistical inference as it is currently employed in the NBA. It should be noted that our blog wholeheartedly endorses the use of such measures. We believe that mathematics are the best tools to create models which explain the natural world and edify our understanding of it. These tools, however, are not infallible. They must be understood and their utility clearly mapped out. While statistics of the NBA have greatly benefited the fans,the players, and the league, they are often stretched beyond any reasonable measure.

John Hollinger's team rating, for example, is supposed to be descriptive (not prescriptive). He says that "these rankings...give a quick assessment of all 30 teams so far in the season, since sometimes the standings can be misleading in this department." Yet, observe his column, which will rely tirelessly on these rankings as predictors for future success. If this model is meant for prediction, he should say so up front and we believe change a number of things about it (e.g. not weigh recent performance so heavily).

This is really the issue with statistics now. We have more and more wonderful models such as Hollinger's rankings that significantly outperform their older and more traditional counterparts (such as a simple win-loss record). We have been too quick, however, to throw out all other metrics of understanding and rely solely and rashly on the statistics. There are many times when we see something about a player, a team, or a game that the statistics miss, and in the end, we find ourselves vindicated by the results. Does this mean we should throw them out because they do not measure such things as heart, guts, or determination? Certainly not. Rather, it suggests that our knowledge of statistics and how they apply to basketball are still nascent in nature, and that they need time to develop before we place the heavy onus that we already do on them. If we are too hasty, they will certainly crumble under that weight.