Ricky Rubio Coin Flip

The ongoing Ricky Rubio saga took an interesting turn this past week. Despite a daunting wall of European contract restrictions, the Minnesota Timberwolves are apparently still in the running for the electric young Spanish talent. At least according to a variety of sources, the Timberwolves now have a 50-50 chance of securing Rubio to an NBA contract. Keeping in mind that the draft lottery is designed to help rebuild the leauges worst teams, I feel it is worth taking a look at the issues that may allow a 24 win team to go without their top 5 lottery pick this year.

The Spaniard's current contract with DKV Joventut has 2 years left on it as well as an obscenely disproportionate $8.2 million buy-out clause. Compare this to the fact that Rubio didn't even make $100,000 playing basketball last year. To make matters more confusing, DKV Joventut offered Rubio's contract as collateral for a late tax payment to Spain's IRS, Hacienda. Though not actually sold, the contract is now further tied down by an unstable national economic climate, government beaurocracy, as well as DKV Joventut's desire for debt relief. This is of course in addition to Rubio's aversion to all things cold.

In accordance with the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, Minnesota can only contribute $500,000 to aid in the mammoth buyout. Despite beginning his professional career at only 14 and being the youngest player ever to participate in Spain's ACB leauge, it isn't difficult to see that a combination of personal and Minnesota buyout funds will still fall far short. It is also true that while Rubio went public with the fact that he would play for free if that's what it took to realize his dream of playing in the NBA, this was before he fell from the third spot that many thought he would be drafted in to the fifth.

When it looked like he was going to be drafted third by Oklahoma City, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that a buyout would send him to the States. However, the difference in rookie contract salary between the third and fifth lottery spots is significant. Instead of earning $10,761,200 over three years, he will earn $8,785,800. Subtract the buyout and you'll get what Rubio will have only after three years of playing at a severely reduced salary. Let's just say that's less than Uros Slokar (hint: see 'lowest paid players in NBA').

If Rubio delivers in the NBA, he will certainly recoup the buyout amount quickly through endorsements and other opportunities. Having already appeared in commercials with some of sports' highest profile figures (Tiger Woods/Derek Jeter/Roger Federer/etc), Rubio has massive marketing potential at only 18 years old. He'll fair better in the long term if he makes the transition to the NBA, but would have to sacrifice for now.

Even though it appears Rubio and his Spanish team will part ways regardless of his destination next year, this could be bad news for Minnesota. If money becomes a higher priority, the point guard can sign another European offer with a team like Regal FC Barcelona, Olympiacos, or Real Madrid which are interested and not beholden to the NBA buyout and rookie salary. Money doesn't appear to be the only concern however, as Spanish news reported that Rubio turned down the Real Madrid and Olympiacos offers last week which were both greater than Regal FC Barcelona's. As reported by ESPN in the video link above, a final option would be for Rubio to sit out a year of basketball and re-enter the NBA draft. In this unlikely, worst case scenario, Minnesota would lose their rights to the previously drafted player.

To complicate the issue even further, Minnesota is still without a coach after Kevin McHale's release. The team appears to be leaning toward Mark Jackson while also considering Kurt Rambis and Elston Turner. It has not been made public as to who Rubio would prefer but the decision may help determine where he will end up. Then there's always the issue of Timberwolves backcourt personell, having drafted Rubio and Jonny Flynn consecutively 5th and 6th. Despite David Kahn's stand that Flynn and Rubio could play together in Minnesota, the reality appears to point more in the direction that he simply took the best available talent and will look to make a move in the near future if both point guards do in fact show up. Finally, here is a upbeat look at Minnesota prospects even with all the snags that have cropped up.

In the end, it is bizarre how this can all culminate in the 5th pick of the NBA draft having the same chance of playing for the team that drafted him as the chance of flipping tails on your luckiest penny. I gave it a try myself this morning and determined that Rubio was headed to Minnesota twice, Barcelona once, and the NY Knicks ten times in a sign and trade for Darko Milicic... Get out your coins and send me your second opinions.


UPDATE:
Here is a recent article downgrading the chances of Rubio playing in Minnesota well below what was being proposed above. It also includes some interesting quotes from Timberwolves' president David Kahn regarding his vision of a Rubio/Flynn backcourt.